Hawaii’s tourism numbers for early 2026 are out, and the headline is bigger than expected. The state pulled in $4.17 billion in visitor spending through February — a 14.8% jump over the same period in 2025. Total visitor arrivals climbed 3.6% in February alone, with 787,024 people arriving across the four major islands.

That gap — spending up 15%, arrivals up 4% — tells the real story. Visitors are not just coming back. They are spending dramatically more per trip. And that has direct implications for anyone planning a summer 2026 Hawaii vacation.

Governor Green’s office released the headline figures alongside the DBEDT statistical brief. The key numbers from the first two months of 2026:

• Total visitor spending: $4.17 billion (up 14.8% from $3.63 billion in early 2025)
• February visitor spending: $1.91 billion (up 10.3% year-over-year)
• February total arrivals: 787,024 visitors (up 3.6%)
• February air arrivals: 760,790 visitors
• February cruise arrivals: 26,234 visitors

The growth was strongest in the U.S. West and U.S. East source markets, with Japan and Korea also recording strong year-over-year gains in both spending and arrivals. Canada — historically Hawaii’s second-largest international market — was the major weak spot. Canadian arrivals have been pulling back since late 2025 over a combination of currency, tariff, and political tensions.

Per-visitor spending — calculated by dividing total spending by total arrivals — is now running roughly 11% higher than this time last year. That is an unusually large jump in a single year. Some of it is inflation. Most of it is travelers booking longer stays at higher-tier hotels and spending more on activities, dining, and tours.

The pattern is consistent with what hotel and restaurant operators have been reporting for months: fewer budget travelers, more premium ones. Several factors are driving it.

The Maui rebound shifted upmarket. After the August 2023 wildfires, Maui’s visitor base reset. Budget travelers and value-seekers were slower to return; honeymooners, anniversary trips, and luxury travelers came back first. The result: higher per-visitor spending but slightly lower total counts than pre-fire baselines. February data confirms Maui’s spending climbed sharply while arrival counts remain below 2023 highs.

Hotel inflation is real. Average daily room rates across the state are up 8-12% year-over-year, with luxury properties on the Kohala Coast and in Wailea pushing the high end. A single night that cost $580 in 2025 may cost $650 now. Multiply across a week-long trip and the spending number climbs even if behavior is identical.

Activities and tours are pricier. Helicopter tours, sunset cruises, snorkel charters, and luaus have all raised prices in the past year. New park entry and reservation fees at Hanauma Bay, Diamond Head, Waianapanapa, and other sites add to the per-trip total.

Higher-income visitors stayed loyal. Travelers who spend $5,000+ per trip are less price-sensitive than those who spend $1,500. When inflation hits, the budget end thins out first; the premium end keeps booking. That mathematically pushes per-visitor averages up.

Demand is real, even if the storms briefly spooked the booking window. Two back-to-back kona low storms in March and April triggered a wave of trip cancellations and softened June bookings briefly. The booking window for summer deals is still open, but the Q1 spending data confirms the underlying demand is strong. Soft pockets in summer inventory will fill back in as the storm coverage fades.

Hotel rates are not coming down. If you have been waiting for prices to drop before booking summer, the data does not support that strategy. With spending up nearly 15% and high-end properties full, expect rates to hold or climb through July. The exception: shoulder weeks (early June, late August) and properties with new rooms or recent renovations may discount to fill.

Restaurant reservations matter more than ever. Higher per-visitor spending means more people are eating at the top-tier restaurants. Reservations at Mama’s Fish House (Maui), Merriman’s locations, Roy’s, the Beachhouse on Kauai, and other in-demand spots are booking out 2-4 weeks ahead in summer. Use OpenTable or Resy and book before you fly.

Activity availability is tighter. Helicopter tours, swimming with manta rays, sunrise Haleakala tours, and other peak experiences are selling out 1-2 weeks in advance during summer. Don’t expect to walk up the day-of and find space. Book the big-ticket activities on Viator or directly with operators before you arrive.

Tipping the cost ladder. If your budget is tight, consider trading down a hotel category and trading up an activity or two. A mid-tier hotel plus a helicopter tour delivers a better trip than a luxury hotel and no activities. The data says people are doing the opposite this year.

Oahu — Spending and arrivals both up modestly. Waikiki is full but not insane; non-Waikiki neighborhoods (Ko Olina, Kailua, North Shore) have more flex. Restaurant waits are up across the board.

Maui — The biggest spending growth in absolute dollars. Wailea and Kapalua resorts are running near full at premium rates. South Maui (Kihei) and the North Shore (Paia, Haiku) have more value options. Road to Hana requires planning ahead more than ever — rental car shortages, road closures from recent storms, and reservation requirements at Waianapanapa State Park all add friction.

Big Island — Kohala Coast resorts are doing very well, especially the recently renovated Mauna Kea Beach Hotel and the Four Seasons Hualalai. Hilo side and Volcano remain the value alternative, with strong demand from travelers wanting to see the ongoing Kilauea Episode 44 eruption.

Kauai — Quietest of the four islands by visitor counts but spending per visitor is among the highest. Princeville and Poipu are full at premium rates; the Coconut Coast (Kapaa) and Wailua remain the value plays.

A few things to watch in the weeks ahead.

The April flood watch and storm recovery. The current statewide flood watch (extended through April 13) is the second major weather event in five weeks. If it triggers another wave of cancellations, June bookings could soften further. The storms have not changed underlying demand, but they do cluster cancellations in inconvenient ways.

Summer airfare ceilings. Beat of Hawaii reported summer 2026 fares from many gateways are unusually high. Delta’s expanded JFK-HNL daily service and ongoing California-Hawaii competition should help, but airfare is still the single biggest cost most travelers face.

The Canadian market. If Canadian visitors continue to pull back, Hawaii loses its second-largest international source. Hotels and tour operators have been compensating with U.S. domestic and Asian growth, but a deeper Canadian decline would force pricing adjustments — likely downward in midmarket properties on Maui and Kauai.

The DBEDT March release. March data drops in late April. If March arrivals reflect storm-related cancellations, the surge may show some moderation. If they hold up, expect summer prices to firm further.

Hawaii’s early 2026 numbers tell a clear story. The premium end of the visitor market is strong and spending more than ever. The budget end is thinner. Hotel rates are climbing and not coming down. Activity and restaurant availability is tighter at the top. The real story is not whether Hawaii is busy — it is whether you book ahead of the demand curve or get stuck booking into it.

For summer travelers, the practical advice has not changed: lock in flights and hotels now if you have not already, book big-ticket activities before you fly, make restaurant reservations 2-3 weeks out, and build flexibility into your itinerary so weather disruptions do not derail the whole trip. Our free trip planning tools can help you map the logistics.

You will need a rental car for almost any Hawaii trip outside Waikiki — book that early too, as inventory tightens with overall demand.

• DBEDT February 2026 Visitor Statistics Release
• Office of the Governor — News Release
• DBEDT Visitor Research Hub
• Honolulu Star-Advertiser coverage