Hawaii’s first two months of 2026 looked strong on paper. DBEDT reported 1.66 million visitors through February — up 7.1% over the same period last year — with total spending hitting $4.17 billion, a 15% jump. Per-person spending is climbing faster than headcount, which is exactly what the state’s tourism strategy wants: fewer visitors spending more.

Then March happened. Two back-to-back Kona low storms triggered flooding, road closures, and a wave of trip cancellations. Forward bookings for summer softened. If you’re planning a June, July, or August trip, here’s what the data actually tells you — and why right now might be the best booking window of the year.

February 2026 brought 787,024 total visitors to Hawaii, up 3.6% year-over-year. The spending story is more interesting than the arrivals story.

Maui posted the strongest recovery: 223,227 visitors (+11.5%) and $571.5 million in spending (+6.8%). That’s a clear signal that Maui’s post-wildfire rebound is real. Hotels are full again, restaurants are staffed, and the West Maui corridor that was devastated in August 2023 has rebuilt enough tourism infrastructure to absorb demand.

Statewide, 760,790 visitors arrived by air and 26,234 came via cruise ships. The average stay was 8.69 days — slightly shorter than last year’s 8.87 days. The daily visitor census hit 244,231, up 1.5%. Translation: Hawaii had roughly the same number of visitors on any given day, but each one spent more money.

The U.S. West Coast and East Coast markets drove most of the growth. Domestic travelers account for roughly 85% of Hawaii’s visitors, and they’re spending more per trip than they did pre-pandemic.

Japan continues its recovery: 52,377 visitors in February (+9.0%), spending $74 million. That’s still well below pre-pandemic peaks — Japan sent over 125,000 visitors per month in 2019 — but the trajectory is positive. The weaker yen makes Hawaii expensive for Japanese travelers, so the ones who come tend to splurge.

Canada went the other direction: 46,392 visitors (-4.6%), though spending per person actually rose, pushing total Canadian spending to $144.4 million (+3.4%). Fewer Canadians are coming, but the ones who do are staying longer and spending more.

The Kona low storms in March dumped record rainfall on parts of O’ahu and the Big Island. Flooding closed roads, several beach parks took damage, and airlines issued travel waivers. The headlines rattled prospective summer visitors.

Forward bookings for June through August dipped below historical norms in the weeks after the storms. That softening creates an unusual opportunity. Hotels that were projecting full summer occupancy now have inventory to fill. Airlines that added capacity — Delta’s new Minneapolis-Maui route, Southwest’s return to Hawaii from Ontario and Burbank — need to sell those seats.

When supply rises and demand softens, prices drop. We’re seeing that right now in summer airfare and hotel rates.

If you’re planning a summer Hawaii trip, the 8-to-10-week booking window for June travel is closing fast — mid-April is the sweet spot for the best rates. July and August travelers have a few more weeks, but don’t wait past early May.

Three tactics that consistently save money on summer Hawaii airfare:

Fly Tuesday or Wednesday. Midweek departures run 10-20% cheaper than Friday or Saturday flights on the same route. On a $700 round-trip fare, that’s $70-$140 back in your pocket.

Book red-eyes from the West Coast. Late-night departures from LAX, SFO, and SEA to Honolulu save $40-$80 per ticket compared to daytime flights. You land in Hawaii by 6 a.m. and gain a full day.

Compare rental cars early. Summer 2026 rental car inventory in Hawaii is tighter than the mainland average. Lock in rates now through Discount Hawaii Car Rental — they compare across all agencies and rates are still competitive for June and July pickups.

The storms are over. Roads are reopened. Beach parks are cleaning up. Hawaii’s infrastructure bounces back fast from weather events — this isn’t a Maui-wildfire-scale disruption. By June, the only trace of the March storms will be slightly greener hillsides and slightly lower hotel rates.

The underlying trend is clear: visitors are spending more per trip ($4.17 billion in just January-February), stays are getting slightly shorter, and the state is on track for roughly $23.6 billion in total visitor spending for 2026. Hawaii isn’t getting cheaper over time. The accommodation taxes alone now run 18-19% depending on the island.

But right now, in April 2026, summer bookings are soft and prices reflect it. That won’t last. Book your flights and car this month, lock in hotel rates, and you’ll land in Hawaii when the water is warmest and the deals are best.