12-02-2022
What’s happening on Mauna Loa
President & certified Hawaii travel expert with 15+ years of experience in Hawaii tourism.
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November 2022 Mauna Loa Update
On the night of Sunday, November 27th, at around 11:30 local time, Mauna Loa began erupting. So far, there have been no evacuation warnings.
However, there have been road closures, and at 8 PM UTC on November 29th, the largest and longest of several lava flows crossed the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory Road. The Hawaii Department of Health also issued a warning about the air quality. Residents are advised to limit outdoor activity, close doors, and windows, and drink plenty of fluids. You can stay current on the air quality data using this interactive map provided by the Department of Health.
This marks the first time in almost four decades that the world’s largest volcano has erupted. The United States Geological Survey issued an update on Monday morning that the eruption had migrated from the summit to the Northeast Rift Zone. At the time of writing, the USGS says, “all indications are that the eruption will remain in the Northeast Rift Zone” and that “lava flows are not threatening any downslope communities.”
There is no need to panic - however, we recommend keeping a close eye on official updates if you are currently on the Big Island. The USGS Mauna Loa page is the best place to get current information.
Photo credit USGS
Even subtle hints of a potential eruption are enough to make headlines worldwide when you're the world's largest volcano.
In the past few months, the Big Island's Mauna Loa has been experiencing small earthquakes at a significantly higher rate than usual - sometimes as high as 100 in a day. If you employ basic intuition, as most of us naturally would, this increased rumbling beneath the surface of a vast volcano is…worrying.
However, while the United States Geological Survey has Mauna Loa under a yellow advisory as of November 11th, and the United States Park Service has closed the backcountry section of the volcano to hikers and campers, this isn't due to potential eruption. The USGS says there are "no signs of an imminent eruption."
The frequent rumbling of the Earth is not the massive volcano shuddering towards a destructive burst. Still, magma flows into the summit reservoir at a higher rate from beneath the planet's surface. Scientists say this means Mauna Loa is currently in a "heightened unrest." That might still sound concerning at first, but the experts don't seem too worried, at least not yet.
Does this mean scientists are sure that Mauna Loa isn't going to erupt soon? No. However, it does mean that any information online or elsewhere that indicates an eruption is imminent is not based on current expert opinion. However, the profusion of misleading information on this demonstrates what makes communicating effectively to the public so hard for scientists in the first place. People understandably want concrete answers - is Mauna Loa going to blow or not? The scientifically accurate answer is more complicated than that.
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In a broader sense, Mauna Loa is almost certain to erupt at some point in the future. Since 1843, it has blown its top a total of 33 times. Only 2 of those eruptions occurred after 1950, leading to a kind of glass-half-empty-half-full split between those who think this shows the volcano calming down over time and those who believe we are more due than ever for a new eruption.
It is important to understand that both of these views are misguided. If there was some time-based pattern to volcanic eruptions, then predicting them would be easy. We instinctively try to recognize such patterns in just about everything we see in the world, especially when they involve existential threats like huge volcanoes - but volcanoes and natural disasters generally don’t work this way. Mauna Loa is not “overdue” for an eruption.
However, scientists can’t tell the public that Mauna Loa isn’t going to erupt - nor can public officials shy away from encouraging residents and visitors to be prepared, which is always better than the alternative, regardless of the likelihood of any emergency happening. This means talking about things like “go bags” containing food and supplies and having plans for a place to flee to if needed, which are simply not reassuring-sounding things to hear officials talk about in any context.
No more reassuring is the history of Mauna Loa eruptions when they do, on rare occasions, happen. Mauna Loa is so massive that even on by far and away the geographically largest island in the archipelago, it constitutes slightly more than half of the entire surface of the island. Lava flowing down the sides has therefore been reliably destructive.
The last eruption lasted 22 days, from March 25th to April 15th, 1984. By then, the island was better prepared than ever for the ensuing lava flows - but there were still levees broken, power lines destroyed, and terrible air pollution. Arguably most significant was the widespread panic among Hilo residents, who were subjected to the deafening sound of continuous methane gas explosions and the ominous, almost Satanic glow of lava across the horizon at night. Streets became congested with traffic as the collective unease grew and grew for 3 long and stressful weeks.
The not-quite-40-year-old memory of this is still alive in the minds of enough residents to fill recent meetings around the Big Island hosted by the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency. Concerned attendees are anxious for answers and advice if any unsolicited lava starts rolling in the coming days.
The USGS and Habitat for Humanity are great sources of information on preparing for potential natural disasters. Again, these are safety measures recommended all the time as generally good ideas - not because of anything currently happening at Mauna Loa making them more necessary than usual. The Hawaii Tourism Authority is so unconcerned about Mauna Loa that their recommendation for non-residents is to do nothing - don’t change your travel plans.
So, as a prospective visitor or concerned resident reading this, you may be wondering what to do. How should one make sense of all the hysteria about Mauna Loa, and what actions, if any, should one take?
The first point we’d like to make is that we are not geologists; therefore, the United States Geological Survey is the best source of concrete information. In addition to being an authority on volcanoes, they also have a page dedicated to publishing updates from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. The updates are frequent and thorough - if anything changes regarding the state Mauna Loa is in, you’ll hear about it there first.
We also second the recommendations of local officials that having a disaster plan is always a good idea, regardless of the level of public concern at any given time.
Aside from being prepared and following the best available information as it continually updates, there isn’t much else you need to do. If you’re scheduled to visit the Big Island soon, don’t cancel your plane tickets - unless you want to, of course. The Island of Hawaii remains a beautiful place to visit and the home of the world’s largest - and currently not erupting - volcano.
That being said, Mauna Loa is a force of nature to be respected. There has been a big push in Hawaii since the pandemic to shift public perception about our relationship with nature, which draws millions to these islands each year. Other emblematic events have recently transpired nearby - for example, the unprecedented erosion and damage at Kaanapali Beach due to climate change-induced rising sea levels.
The truth is, Mauna Loa has been here the whole time, letting us grow coffee along its spine, roam across its slopes, and bask in its awesome shadow. One potential positive about the volcano's attention is that it may help spread a shift in the public consciousness, which points more towards reverence and care for Hawaii as a cherished - and mighty - natural phenomenon.
We all hope, and all currently available evidence suggests that lava is not yet poised to rain down on the people of the Island of Hawaii. However, it has happened before, and sooner or later, it will probably happen again. The more awareness among the general public about what that may entail and how best to prepare, the better.
Published by: Tori C. Derrick
President & certified Hawaii travel expert with 15+ years of experience in Hawaii tourism.
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